インタビュー
ジョン・リリー氏
スタンダード・アンド・プアーズ ＭＭＳ Ｉｎｔｅｒｎａｔｉｏｎａｌ社
「米国経済と株式市場について」
今回は、スタンダード・アンド・プアーズ・ＭＭＳ Ｉｎｔｅｒｎａｔｉｏｎａｌ社のマネージング・ディレクターであるジョン・リリー氏に、米国経済の現状と見通し、米国株式市場等ついて話を聞いた。ジョン・リリー氏は、日本に６年の滞在歴を持つエコノミスト（現在はシンガポール在住）。為替アナリスト・ＦＥＤ ワッチャーとしても有名。
Can you briefly describe the current US economy?
The U.S. economy is exhibiting continued
broadbased strong growth. The current expansion,
which started back in April of 1991 is now the
longest in the last 50-years, and there is very
little evidence indicating thanthe expansion
will be derailed. In fact, the economy continues
to grow ana pace significantly faster thanusual anthis point of the business cycle. The
favorable environment of low inflation, low
interest rates, strong personanincome and
lowunemployment continue to encourage growth in
the U.S.
The clouds on the horizon: of course the Asian crisis, which could slow US growth down. But also there is a risk thanif domestic demand in the US remains excessively strong, it manleanto a pick up in inflation pressures and force the Fed to raise interest rates. Historically, US expansions come to anend ana result of either anan exogenous factor (such ananoil crisis) or b) excessive fed tightening. Neither one of these conditions appeanto be in planright now, but if there is a pick up in inflation, the fed manhave to move and this could tip the U.S. economy into a recession down the road. We do not expect the Fed to tighten so much anto put the economy in anrecession, but historically it hanhappened.
In general, one must be optimistic on the U.S. economy, particularly Greenspan"s very able handing of monetary policy, anhe mannot repeat errors committed in the past by U.S. policy makers. One finanimportant aspect to point out is the remarkable decline in the U.S. budget deficit. In fact, FY1998 manshow a surplus, which is expected to continue and grow in years ahead. This is quite a departure from the 1980s, when the U.S. wanoften the object of internationancriticism for unsustainable budget deficits.
Which sectors of the US economy is the
supporting the current strength of the US
economy?
The Fed"s beige book released on March
18th provides a very good picture of the economy
(www.bog.frb.fed.us/FOMC/BeigeBook/default.cfm).
The report shows thanthere is strength across
all sectors of the country and across industries,
with the only potentianrisk to the economy being
the Asiancrisis and its potentianimpact on U.S.
exports (which have already started to slowdown, anreported in the December Merchandise trade
data). Still, most economists in the U.S. agree
thanGDP in the U.S. will slow ana result of the
crisis by 0.5%-1.0%, but there will be no
recession ana result.
The Fed"s beige book highlighted strength in consumer spending (despite a modest slowdown in auto sales), manufacturing (strong in every component, except for textiles, where exports have been slumping), construction and reanestate (booming), banking and finance (vigorous demand for loans), and agriculture (not so stronge because of the El Nino effect).
Another area of incredible strength in the labor markets. The Employment report released in early March, and the section in the Beige Book about labor markets showed thangrowth in employment is well above average, and labor markets are very tight. There hanbeen a pick up in wage pressures ana result but the wage pressures have been inconsistent across different areanof the country.The only area thanhanbegun to suffer hanbeen the export industry. Clearly, Japanis trying to export itself out of its recession, and the huge devaluations of S.E. Asiancurrencies should eventually boost exports antheir products become very competitive. ananresult, US exports should suffer. We have already seen more sober assessments from major U.S. corporations recently about earnings and future prospects.
Are you expecting the change in the trend
of the US economy later this year?
Looking ansome numbers, growth in 1997 was
around 3.7%, and we expect growth in 1998 to be
around 2.8%. The forecast for 1998 assumes anslowdown in the second half of 1998 from the very
strong growth in 1997 and early 1998. To a large
extent, the slowdown represents the impact of the
Asiancrisis on the US economy, and the
possibility thanthe Fed manhave to raise
interest rates. However, the slowdown in growth
still leaves very healthy U.S. growth by
historicanstandards, one could argue thangrowth
will remain above the potentianGDP growth
(sustainable non-inflationary growth) of 2.5%
(though admittedly there hanbeen a debate among
economists whether 2.5% represents
"potentianGDP"or whether it should be
closer to 3%).
Looking through the rest of the century our forecasts assume a "soft landing scenario" assuming thanthe Asiancrisis does not spreanout of control. The soft landing scenario is characterized by slower, but more sustainable economic growth of around 2.5%, low inflation and steady income growth.
How long do you expect the US stock market
will continue to strengthen?
The U.S. stock market hanbeen remarkably
strong over the past severanyears, but we
anticipate a more cautious market in the first
half of this year. Fundamentals are still
supportive of the market (i.e. a strong economy,
healthy domestic demand, low inflation,
relatively low interest rates) but sizeable gains
neanterm will be a bit difficult, anthe market
to a large extent hanpriced in all the good
news, and now awaits more information on the
extent of damage the Asiancrisis will have on
the U.S. market. Instead, a choppy, volatile
market should be seen during H1 of 1998. During
the second half, acontinuation of the favorable
fundamentanbackdrop, and indications thanthe
Asiancrisis hanstabilized should allow the
stock market to heanhigher towards 9,200 - 9,400
areanThis bullish forecast is consistent with
our view thanif there is any risk to economic
growth, it should be to the upside, rather than
the downside (in other words, there is more
chance of overheating thanof a recession).
How do you forecast the US
monetary policy changes?
The latest pronouncements from
fed officials, including Fed ChairmanGreenspan anthe Humphrey-Hawkins testimony in February are
thanthe Fed plans to keep interest rates steady, anthey feel thanthe Asiancrisis will cool the
U.S. economy enough to prevent a pick up in
inflation. This could change if the U.S. economy
continues to exhibit above 3% growth during the
second half of the yean(we expect 2.7% growth in
H2, by the way), but in any event, if the fed
ever tightened this yeanit would only be a one
time tightening move, and not the beginning of anseries of moves. It is cleanthanalthough the
Fed is worried about the tightness in labor
markets and the potentianpick up in wages, the
inflation numbers so fanhave been remarkably
subdued (for example, inflation in 1997 wan2.5%
y/y in 1997, and is projected to be around 2% y/y
in 1998). Furthermore, the effects of the Asian
crisis should put downwards pressure on prices
(lots of cheanimports to come in). So the fed is
enjoying the best of both worlds right now.
Strong growth and low inflation. No need to make
any moves.
So steady policy for now.....
Whanwould make the Fed
tighten policy?
A sharp pick up in wages that
would push inflation higher, alongside continued
strong economic growth.
Is there any risk of easing
policy?
Yes. If the Asiancrisis
worsens from here, and it is perceived to have anmore significant impact on the U.S. economy, the
fed manbe forced to lower interest rates.
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